Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 15.778766 18.017401 20.430293 23.220610 26.354644 29.762117 33.743480
2025-01-26 12.694956 15.776366 19.354094 23.799708 29.159203 35.394738 43.180842
2025-02-02 11.180516 14.666408 18.909411 24.425008 31.373147 39.800349 50.756807
2025-02-09 9.685020 13.342862 17.988772 24.276882 32.513119 42.875195 56.831418
2025-02-16 8.463771 12.176031 17.070772 23.933185 33.230446 45.301801 62.058623
2025-02-23 7.626315 11.410363 16.571183 24.039024 34.465914 48.387365 68.233876
2025-03-02 6.983348 10.832602 16.247465 24.311998 35.883650 51.727438 74.860595
2025-03-09 6.371627 10.228898 15.816540 24.367447 36.954964 54.599098 80.938850
2025-03-16 5.762031 9.562485 15.225622 24.120629 37.538213 56.769861 86.088269
2025-03-23 5.347621 9.152421 14.972191 24.334948 38.777531 59.903683 92.730392
2025-03-30 5.106199 8.990557 15.076220 25.083447 40.837386 64.310311 101.417049
2025-04-06 4.664300 8.458858 14.553845 24.806074 41.287629 66.313661 106.578941
2025-04-13 4.054837 7.598583 13.449653 23.540015 40.138143 65.866717 108.063066
2025-04-20 3.862825 7.441138 13.487317 24.133447 41.983325 70.129204 117.025932
2025-04-27 3.695429 7.309381 13.552092 24.764322 43.906940 74.582967 126.463246
2025-05-04 3.412211 6.940130 13.177437 24.615117 44.515456 76.946555 132.650293
2025-05-11 3.125771 6.537466 12.710649 24.266788 44.753067 78.697385 137.894118
2025-05-18 2.932890 6.295539 12.512232 24.374060 45.768015 81.760362 145.409580
2025-05-25 2.779487 6.116613 12.414141 24.650472 47.083819 85.372333 153.978009
2025-06-01 2.609590 5.888767 12.206138 24.706635 48.001951 88.336351 161.558249
2025-06-08 2.416401 5.594992 11.849285 24.456680 48.344266 90.309249 167.502742
2025-06-15 2.293337 5.437103 11.743715 24.673721 49.545289 93.818608 176.236532
2025-06-22 2.237802 5.419441 11.913740 25.431710 51.786640 99.253519 188.557721